Current analysis #400Generated Aug 18, 6:02 PM GMT+8
Decision brief
WAIT
Mixed Transition · score 0.37
only order_flow is MODERATE bearish while other agents are WEAK/AVOID or context-only; DCA is already $360 (18%) deployed and BTC is boxed between $63,700-$63,950 support and $64,850-$65,150 resistance
Nearest credible setup
Order Flow
Short
Setup
Support Loss Acceptance
Trigger zone
$63,700 – $64,000
Stop
$64,650
Targets
$63,700 · $63,200 · $62,235
Reward / risk
1:0.19 · 1:0.81 · 1:2.02
Invalidation
Invalid if BTC reclaims and holds above $64,650 or accepts into $64,850-$65,150 with improving CVD.
1Watch
2Near
3Confirm
4Order
Closed Candle Acceptance · unknownBTC is near $64,107, not confirmed below $64,000.
Cvd Confirmation · pass24h CVD is negative at -5.33M and 4d CVD is -11.45M.
Oi Expansion · unknown24h OI rose 1.07%, but confirmation is needed at the break.
Same Direction Confirmation · unknownLiquidity_sweep recognizes the $63,700-$64,000 gate but has no confirmed sweep/rejection yet.
Price touch requests fresh analysis; no automatic entry.
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Paper portfolio
Trade status
OPEN
Open2Active paper position
Deployed$360$2,000 paper book
Pending0No armed entries
Reserved$0Pending paper orders
Available cash$1,640Uncommitted paper capital
Current tradeOPEN
longOpen
Dca Overlay
BTCUSDT - opened Jul 1, 9:14 AM GMT+8
Unrealized PnL+$17.74+11.09%
Since entryLong
Highest profit+$24.80+15.50%
Max drawdown$0.000.00%
Entry$57,897
Live mark$64,318
Stop$50,000
Target$100,000
Size$160
Trade rationale
Keep DCA long from $57,897 because cycle model is bottoming, but DCA deployed $360 total exceeds the capped $250 allocation; recommend no additional DCA buys and partial trim only if BTC loses $61,516.90 or if cash reserve rules require bringing exposure back under 12.5%.
longOpen
Dca Overlay
BTCUSDT - opened Jun 18, 11:40 PM GMT+8
Unrealized PnL+$4.40+2.20%
Since entryLong
Highest profit+$12.50+6.25%
Max drawdown-$16.01-8.01%
Entry$62,935
Live mark$64,318
Stop$50,000
Target$100,000
Size$200
Trade rationale
Keep DCA long from $62,935 while price remains above $64,850 gate, but mark DCA sleeve oversized versus allocation; do not add until F&G <= 25 or price reaches configured lower DCA levels.
Monitor handoff
Target alert
Watching target
Probability map
Scenarios
4 active cases
Base caseMost likely
$62,950-$65,500 liquidity-box chop remains dominant
$63K – $65.5K
Adjusted probability
42.0%
Raw probability
44.0%
Triggers
BTC keeps holding around $64,000-$64,250 on dips but fails sustained acceptance above $64,850-$65,150.
ADX remains below 20 and price continues to rotate between $63,700-$63,950 support and $64,850-$65,150 resistance.
Support
Previous top scenario #2 remains ACTIVE with current BTC $64,107 inside the prior $62,950-$65,500 range.
Liquidity_sweep is WEAK/HOLD and describes BTC as mid-range between $63,700-$64,000 and $64,850-$65,150 without a confirmed sweep/reclaim or rejection.
Trend_following sees compression: BTC is inside 10/20/50-day Donchian channels with ADX 12.58.
Contradiction
A 1H close below $64,000 with failed reclaim would shift toward scenario 3.
Acceptance above $65,150 and daily close above $65,488 would shift toward scenario 1.
Negative CVD and elevated retail longs can turn chop into a faster downside acceptance move.
Action: Wait for acceptance below $64,000 before short exposure, or stand aside until $64,650-$65,150 is reclaimed with positive CVD. · Level Focus: $64,000-$64,100 pivot; downside $63,700-$63,950, upside $64,850-$65,150 · Bias Summary: Order flow leans conditionally bearish because price rose while CVD stayed negative and OI expanded. · Primary Risk: The bearish read fails if bid support absorbs near $64,000 and price reclaims $64,650-$65,150 with rising CVD and stable OI. · Why It Matters: A loss of $64,000 would turn the nearest downside liquidity shelf into the cleaner forced-flow target, while holding above it keeps the trade trapped in a two-sided gate.
Entry
63700 · 64000
Stop
$64,650
Target
63000 · 63200
Liquidity Sweep
WEAK
Action: Wait for a wick through $63,700-$64,000 followed by reclaim for long consideration, or a spike into $64,850-$65,150 followed by rejection for short consideration; otherwise hold/avoid fresh sweep trades. · Level Focus: $63,700-$64,000 downside sweep zone; $64,850-$65,150 upside rejection/acceptance zone · Bias Summary: Liquidity-sweep read is conditional and neutral because price is between adjacent liquidity shelves without a confirmed reclaim/rejection sequence. · Primary Risk: The setup fails if price accepts below $63,700 or above $65,150, turning the sweep map into continuation toward $63,000-$63,200 or $65,500-$66,050. · Why It Matters: A failed sweep into either boundary can produce a reversal scalp, but clean acceptance through the band should not be faded.
Last occurred
Aug 19, 4:36 PM GMT+8
Next: Price touch requests fresh analysis; no automatic entry.
Additional active alerts3
Additional setup1
Trade Setup · Bearish — $64,000 cross below activates the order_flow short-watch branch. — Reanalyze for 1H acceptance below $64,000 with sell CVD and OI expansion before any paper short.
Emergency1
$61,500 cross below would invalidate the near-200WMA/base-case support area and threaten $57,746 structural support. — Emergency reanalysis for portfolio risk and DCA exposure; do not add discretionary longs until structure is rebuilt.
Bullish1
$65,150 cross above clears the primary overhead reaction band. — Reanalyze for sustained acceptance above $65,150 and daily breakout potential above $65,488.
Triggers & evidence
Triggers
BTC keeps holding around $64,000-$64,250 on dips but fails sustained acceptance above $64,850-$65,150.
ADX remains below 20 and price continues to rotate between $63,700-$63,950 support and $64,850-$65,150 resistance.
Support
Previous top scenario #2 remains ACTIVE with current BTC $64,107 inside the prior $62,950-$65,500 range.
Liquidity_sweep is WEAK/HOLD and describes BTC as mid-range between $63,700-$64,000 and $64,850-$65,150 without a confirmed sweep/reclaim or rejection.
Trend_following sees compression: BTC is inside 10/20/50-day Donchian channels with ADX 12.58.
Contradiction
A 1H close below $64,000 with failed reclaim would shift toward scenario 3.
Acceptance above $65,150 and daily close above $65,488 would shift toward scenario 1.
Negative CVD and elevated retail longs can turn chop into a faster downside acceptance move.
Bearish breakdown
Lose $64,000/$63,700 and rotate to $62,150-$62,650 or $61,600
$61.6K – $64K
Adjusted probability
28.0%
Raw probability
24.0%
Triggers
1H close below $64,000 followed by failed reclaim of $64,000-$64,100 and acceptance below $63,700.
CVD remains negative while OI expands, confirming downside continuation toward $63,000-$63,200 then $62,150-$62,650.
Support
Order_flow is MODERATE bearish with 24h CVD -5.33M and rising OI during the bounce.
CrypNuevo warned of a downside liquidity take around $61,600 below the local $62,100 double bottom.
Retail longs are elevated at 60.2%, which can amplify a downside stop run if $64,000/$63,700 breaks.
Contradiction
Cycle/on-chain model is bottoming bullish with 200WMA and M2 liquidity scores positive.
No cascade is detected and funding is positive but not extreme, reducing immediate forced-short conviction.
DrProfit macro context favors accumulation in the $54,000-$64,000 region rather than capitulation.
Triggers & evidence
Triggers
1H close below $64,000 followed by failed reclaim of $64,000-$64,100 and acceptance below $63,700.
CVD remains negative while OI expands, confirming downside continuation toward $63,000-$63,200 then $62,150-$62,650.
Support
Order_flow is MODERATE bearish with 24h CVD -5.33M and rising OI during the bounce.
CrypNuevo warned of a downside liquidity take around $61,600 below the local $62,100 double bottom.
Retail longs are elevated at 60.2%, which can amplify a downside stop run if $64,000/$63,700 breaks.
Contradiction
Cycle/on-chain model is bottoming bullish with 200WMA and M2 liquidity scores positive.
No cascade is detected and funding is positive but not extreme, reducing immediate forced-short conviction.
DrProfit macro context favors accumulation in the $54,000-$64,000 region rather than capitulation.
Bullish breakout
Reclaim $64,850-$65,150, clear $65,488, and squeeze toward $66,200-$69,045
$64.8K – $69K
Adjusted probability
20.0%
Raw probability
23.0%
Triggers
1H/4H acceptance above $65,150 followed by daily close above $65,488 Donchian high with improving CVD.
BTC reclaims EMA50 $64,315 and holds above the $64,850-$65,150 overhead liquidation band.
Support
Cycle convergence is bullish/bottoming with composite +0.625 and bottom estimate $63,855-$70,577.
DrProfit context treats $54,000-$64,000 as a buy region and notes a $65,400 reaction level.
Momentum nudge is mildly bullish after +2.0% 24h price change.
Contradiction
Order_flow is MODERATE bearish because price rose while 24h CVD stayed negative at -5.33M and OI rose 1.07%.
Trend_following is AVOID: ADX 12.58, volume trend -38.58%, BTC below EMA50 $64,315 and EMA200 $69,045.
Overhead heatmap liquidity at $64,850-$65,150 and $65,500-$66,050 can reject a weak rally.
Triggers & evidence
Triggers
1H/4H acceptance above $65,150 followed by daily close above $65,488 Donchian high with improving CVD.
BTC reclaims EMA50 $64,315 and holds above the $64,850-$65,150 overhead liquidation band.
Support
Cycle convergence is bullish/bottoming with composite +0.625 and bottom estimate $63,855-$70,577.
DrProfit context treats $54,000-$64,000 as a buy region and notes a $65,400 reaction level.
Momentum nudge is mildly bullish after +2.0% 24h price change.
Contradiction
Order_flow is MODERATE bearish because price rose while 24h CVD stayed negative at -5.33M and OI rose 1.07%.
Trend_following is AVOID: ADX 12.58, volume trend -38.58%, BTC below EMA50 $64,315 and EMA200 $69,045.
Overhead heatmap liquidity at $64,850-$65,150 and $65,500-$66,050 can reject a weak rally.
Tail risk
Structural support fails and macro forced-flow reopens $57,746-$52,239, with cycle floor risk to $29,026
$29K – $57.7K
Adjusted probability
10.0%
Raw probability
9.0%
Triggers
Daily/weekly acceptance below $61,500 then loss of $57,746.30 Donchian-50 low.
Break below 200WMA area $64,222 fails to recover and forced selling accelerates through $52,239 realized price.
Support
Bear-year context keeps tail-risk probability non-zero; historical -77% ATH drawdown maps to $29,026 from ATH $126,198.
Death cross persists with EMA50 $64,315 below EMA200 $69,045 and BTC still 7.15% ($4,938) below EMA200.
DrProfit downside context includes $54,000-$64,000 buy region, implying deeper levels are plausible if the region fails.
Contradiction
No current cascade is detected and base-case range remains active.
Cycle model bottom estimate $63,855-$70,577 suggests structural floor may be near rather than far below.
200WMA floor has historically held every cycle and is near current price at $64,222.
Triggers & evidence
Triggers
Daily/weekly acceptance below $61,500 then loss of $57,746.30 Donchian-50 low.
Break below 200WMA area $64,222 fails to recover and forced selling accelerates through $52,239 realized price.
Support
Bear-year context keeps tail-risk probability non-zero; historical -77% ATH drawdown maps to $29,026 from ATH $126,198.
Death cross persists with EMA50 $64,315 below EMA200 $69,045 and BTC still 7.15% ($4,938) below EMA200.
DrProfit downside context includes $54,000-$64,000 buy region, implying deeper levels are plausible if the region fails.
Contradiction
No current cascade is detected and base-case range remains active.
Cycle model bottom estimate $63,855-$70,577 suggests structural floor may be near rather than far below.
200WMA floor has historically held every cycle and is near current price at $64,222.
Entry
63700 · 64000
Stop
$63,350
Target
64850 · 65150
Compact boundary ladder
No compact boundary ladder was saved.
2 · Structure
Structural and macro heatmap interpretation
Timeframe usage: 1m — structural — monthly liquidity map · 1w — structural — weekly scenario boundary · 1y — macro — cycle-scale forced-flow/tail risk only, not entry signal · 3m — structural — quarterly scenario/tail boundary · 6m — macro — forced-flow destination/tail risk only, not entry signal | Timeframe analysis: 1w — structural · Slight upside-near-term liquidity draw while above 64000-64100, but structurally two-sided because the largest downside pool near 62600-62850 remains unclaimed if 63700-63900 breaks. · Use 64000-64100 as the immediate pivot. Above it, the structural map favors a probe toward 64650-64850 and the high-intensity 64950-65150 band where profit-taking or sweep-reversal risk increases. Below it, the first downside check is 63700-63900; failure there opens a larger structural path toward 63100-63350 and 62600-62850. These are scenario boundaries and liquidity targets, not standalone trade entries. · 1m — structural · structurally balanced with nearer downside trigger and heavier upside resistance/liquidity overhead · Use 63700-64000 and 65500-66050 as the first scenario boundaries. A sustained break below 63700 favors a liquidation path to 63000-63350, then 62150-62650. A sustained reclaim through 65000 favors a draw toward 65500-66050, with 66200-66800 as the next absorption zone. Do not treat these zones as standalone entries without separate execution confirmation. · 3m — structural · structurally two-sided with heavier unclaimed upside liquidity but nearer downside sweep risk · Use 63200-63600 and 64800-65500 as the immediate structural gates. Above 65500, the map points toward 66000-67000 and then 68600-69500. Below 63200, the map points toward 61800-62500 and potentially 60000-60700. These are liquidity-boundary scenarios only, not standalone entries. · 6m — macro · Macro boundary map is cautiously two-sided with slight upside-liquidity pull while above 63k, but flips to downside forced-flow if 62.5k-63k is lost. · Do not use this 6m frame for entries. Use it to define scenario destinations: upside path targets 66k-67k first, then 68.5k-70k; downside path targets 62.5k-63k first, then 60k-61k. Current price is between the nearest opposing liquidity shelves, so execution should wait for lower-timeframe confirmation elsewhere while this frame supplies macro sweep targets and invalidation boundaries. · 1y — macro · Macro map is liquidity-positive above current price but tactically two-sided: overhead liquidity is larger, while nearby downside shelves can be swept first if current support fails. · Do not use this frame for entries. Use it to define scenario destinations: below 64k favors a sweep toward 60k-62k and possibly 57k-59k; above 67k-69k favors a forced-flow ladder toward 71k-73.5k, 76k-79k, and 82k-85k. Farther 90k-98k and 108k-122k bands are macro upside tail targets only after lower overhead shelves are reclaimed. | Limitations: Screenshot colors support estimated relative weights only; exact per-price-band dollar liquidity is not claimed. · legend_max_liquidity is the scale reference per timeframe only. · Market-maker behavior is interpreted as liquidity provision and inventory-risk management around order-flow imbalance; no hunt is assumed without lower-timeframe confirmation. · 6m/1y are macro forced-flow/scenario/tail-risk context only and are not entry signals.
3 · Capital
Proposed target allocation and strategy matrix
Proposed target allocation
$1,700 executable target
CashHold high cash because most executable agents are HOLD/AVOID and DCA exposure is already…
70.0%
$1,400
Dca OverlayCold-start Kelly 7.5% retained, but current deployed $360 (18%) is oversized versus target;…
7.5%
$150
Order FlowKelly 7.5% retained; only MODERATE conditional bearish setup, so wait for confirmation…
7.5%
$150
No allocationStat Arb, Trend Following, Funding Arb
Evidence overlays
CrypnuevoCold-start Kelly 7.5% retained as dashboard/context sleeve; no direct orders allowed.
SentimentCold-start Kelly 7.5% retained for context, but standalone sentiment action is HOLD/WEAK.
Options VolAVOID: Deribit IV/DVOL/VRP unavailable; dashboard-only until data returns.
Strategy and scenario fit
Strategy
Rating
Role
Scenario fit
Stat Arb
—
—
AVOID · WEAK · WEAK · AVOID
Crypnuevo
—
—
WEAK · WEAK · MODERATE · WEAK
Sentiment
—
—
WEAK · MODERATE · MODERATE · WEAK
Order Flow
—
—
WEAK · MODERATE · STRONG · MODERATE
Dca Overlay
—
—
MODERATE · MODERATE · MODERATE · WEAK
Funding Arb
—
—
AVOID · WEAK · AVOID · AVOID
Options Vol
—
—
AVOID · AVOID · AVOID · AVOID
Liquidity Sweep
—
—
MODERATE · MODERATE · MODERATE · WEAK
Trend Following
—
—
WEAK · AVOID · WEAK · WEAK
4 · Agents
Agent evidence and conflicts
Agent evidence
Funding Arb
0.86 confidence: weak setup
SignalWEAKTradeAVOID
Useful read
Level
Annualized funding < 5% (0.0037% per 8h; ~$64,107 BTC)
Read
Carry exists but is too thin for a funding-arb trade.
Why
Small funding payments can be erased by hedge premium, fees, slippage, or a funding flip.
Action
Avoid new carry trades; monitor for funding annualized above 5% and positive net yield.
Risk
Fees, hedge cost, and funding flips can consume the edge before the trade pays.
See moreSee less
Binance/Gate funding avg_last_10 is positive but only 0.0037% per 8h, annualizing to about 4.05%, below the 5% fast-skip hurdle. Avoid new carry trades until funding rises enough to clear execution drag and the funding-flip exit stays positive.
Risk flags
thin carry below 5% annualized hurdle
fees/slippage consume edge
Deribit options fetch failed, so hedge cost could not be verified
$64.0k spot with $64.5k-$65.5k overhead confirmation zone
Read
Sentiment is weak-to-mixed rather than euphoric, with cautionary headlines outweighing bullish institutional and BTC-resilience headlines.
Why
The read argues against chasing longs on sentiment alone and favors waiting for confirmation from price/liquidity strategies.
Action
HOLD/AVOID new sentiment-led entries; only consider longs if another strategy confirms strength above the overhead band.
Risk
Reddit was unavailable, so the social crowding read is based mostly on RSS headlines and funding rather than direct retail post engagement.
See moreSee less
Sentiment is weak-to-mixed: RSS headlines skew toward caution/security/regulatory/low-volume trap narratives while Fear & Greed is neutral-fearful at 40 and Reddit is unavailable. No sentiment-only trade is valid; avoid fresh longs unless other strategies confirm above the $64.5k-$65.5k resistance band, and treat loss of the $64.0k area as risk of renewed downside pressure.
Order flow leans conditionally bearish because price rose while CVD stayed negative and OI expanded.
Why
A loss of $64,000 would turn the nearest downside liquidity shelf into the cleaner forced-flow target, while holding above it keeps the…
Action
Wait for acceptance below $64,000 before short exposure, or stand aside until $64,650-$65,150 is reclaimed with positive CVD.
Risk
The bearish read fails if bid support absorbs near $64,000 and price reclaims $64,650-$65,150 with rising CVD and stable OI.
See moreSee less
BTC rose about 0.90% ($63,530 to $64,103) while 24h CVD stayed negative (-5.33M), and 24h OI rose about 1.07% ($501.46M to $506.81M), indicating a weak/levered rally with hidden selling rather than clean spot-led strength. Act only on acceptance below $64,000/$64,100 toward $63,700-$63,950 and then $63,000-$63,200; invalidation is a reclaim/hold above $64,650-$65,150 with improving CVD.
Liquidity Sweep
0.58 confidence: weak setup
SignalWEAKTradeHOLD
Useful readAbsorption no
Level
$63,700-$64,000 downside sweep zone; $64,850-$65,150 upside rejection/acceptance zone
Read
Liquidity-sweep read is conditional and neutral because price is between adjacent liquidity shelves without a confirmed reclaim/rejection…
Why
A failed sweep into either boundary can produce a reversal scalp, but clean acceptance through the band should not be faded.
Action
Wait for a wick through $63,700-$64,000 followed by reclaim for long consideration, or a spike into $64,850-$65,150 followed by rejection…
Risk
The setup fails if price accepts below $63,700 or above $65,150, turning the sweep map into continuation toward $63,000-$63,200 or…
See moreSee less
BTC is mid-range near $64,107: the nearest actionable sweep zones are $63,700-$64,000 below and $64,850-$65,150 above, but price has not yet shown a clean sweep-and-reclaim or rejection with confirming CVD/OI. Treat this as a conditional boundary setup: fade only after confirmed rejection/reclaim, while acceptance below $63,700 or above $65,150 converts the move into continuation rather than a sweep reversal.
Trend Following
0.72 confidence: no-trade call
SignalAVOID
Useful readADX 12.58EMA death_cross
Level
$65,488 upside trigger / $62,235 downside trigger
Read
Trend-following read is neutral-to-avoid because price is inside all Donchian channels with ADX 12.58 and contracting volume.
Why
A breakout system has no edge until price leaves compression with participation, otherwise false breaks and chop dominate.
Action
Wait; only consider a long after a daily close above $65,488 with volume expansion, or a short after a daily close below $62,235 with volume…
Risk
A low-volume push near $64.5K-$65.5K can fail while the death cross and negative 90-day performance keep trend quality weak.
See moreSee less
No breakout is confirmed: BTC at $64,107 is below the $65,488 10/20-day Donchian high, above the $62,235 20-day low, and still 0.32% ($208) below the $64,315 50-day EMA. ADX is only 12.58 and volume trend is -38.58%, so treat this as compression/watchlist only; require a daily close above $65,488 with volume expansion or below $62,235 with volume expansion before acting.
Risk flags
ADX 12.58 shows weak trend strength; Donchian breaks before ADX expansion are prone to whipsaw.
Options Vol
0.82 confidence: no-trade call
SignalAVOID
Useful read
Level
No actionable IV level; Deribit IV Rank/DVOL unavailable
Read
Options-vol selling is unavailable because premium and VRP cannot be verified.
Why
Iron condors require confirmed elevated implied volatility and positive VRP to compensate for defined wing risk.
Action
Avoid new options-vol trades until Deribit data returns, IV Rank clears 40, and DVOL is above the 31.33% ATR-based realized-vol proxy.
Risk
Entering without IV and term-structure data could sell underpriced volatility into a breakout or event-driven move.
See moreSee less
Deribit options data is unavailable for this run, so IV Rank, DVOL, term structure, skew, and VRP cannot be verified. Do not sell an iron condor until Deribit data returns and IV Rank is above 40 with positive VRP; dashboard-only options output should not create pending orders.
Risk flags
Deribit IV Rank and DVOL unavailable, preventing the required fast-skip and VRP gates from being validated
Selling premium without confirmed positive VRP risks collecting too little credit versus defined max loss
Stat Arb
0.9 confidence: weak setup
SignalWEAKTradeAVOID
Useful readBest pair BTC/ETHZ-score -1.0871ADF p 0.1806
Level
No pair passed all stat-arb gates; nearest monitor pair BTC/ETH has ADF p=0.1806 and Z=-1.0871 at BTC $64,174.40.
Read
Stat-arb is neutral/weak because spreads are not cointegrated or extreme enough for execution.
Why
Without cointegration plus an extreme spread, a pairs trade is likely noise and can behave like an unhedged directional position.
Action
Avoid new stat-arb trades and monitor for ADF < 0.05, |Z| >= 2.0, correlation > 0.70, no structural break, and at least 180 closes.
Risk
Entering before the gates clear risks a broken-relationship spread widening rather than reverting.
See moreSee less
No analyzed pair passes the full stat-arb gate: every pair has fewer than 180 closes, no confirmed ADF cointegration, and no |Z| >= 2.0 spread. Mean-reversion trading is monitor-only until a pair clears ADF < 0.05, |Z| >= 2.0, stable 30d correlation, no structural-break warning, and sufficient history.
Risk flags
Conflicts
Order Flow · Drprofit Context
Order_flow is MODERATE bearish below $64,000 based on negative CVD and rising OI, while DrProfit context is medium-term bullish accumulation around $54,000-$64,000.
Resolution: Use order_flow for next-session trigger management and DrProfit only as a reason not to over-size shorts into the 200WMA/bottoming zone; no direct DrProfit order.
Order Flow · Trend Following
Order_flow sees a conditional bearish setup under $64,000, while trend_following says AVOID because no confirmed trend or breakout exists.
Resolution: No pending order until price closes below $64,000 with CVD/OI confirmation; trend weakness supports waiting instead of immediate entry.
5 · Scoring
Predictions and scoring
ScenarioScenario 2 base_case $62,950-$65,500 liquidity-box chop remains dominantPrice DirectionBTC remains range-bound to slightly lower unless $65,150 is reclaimed; watch $64,000 break riskStrategy Ratingorder_flow should be the best-performing strategy if $64,000 fails; otherwise liquidity_sweep best handles the range
6 · Analysts
CrypNuevo, DrProfit, and social history
Crypnuevo
0.58 confidence: weak setup
SignalWEAKTradeHOLD
Setup note
Levels
$63,700-$64,000 downside gate, $64,800-$65,150 overhead, and CrypNuevo's stale $61,600 sweep reference.
Summary
CrypNuevo provides a cautionary, weak-neutral context signal rather than a fresh directional trade at $64,107.
Action
Hold or wait; consider bullish confirmation only after acceptance above $65,150, and reassess bearish sweep risk if $64,000 then…
Risk
The social thread is partial and two days old, so price may have already partially invalidated the $61,600 sweep setup…
See moreSee less
CrypNuevo's latest BTC view expected an early-week downside liquidity sweep near $61,600 after the local $62,100 double bottom, but current BTC around $64,107 has already rebounded into a two-sided liquidity map between nearby $63,700-$64,000 downside and $64,800-$65,150 overhead. Treat the post as contextual caution only: no fresh CrypNuevo confirmation for chasing longs unless price accepts above $65,150, and downside relevance returns if $64,000/$63,700 fails.
Risk flags
CrypNuevo thread context is marked partial, so later posts in the thread may alter the nuance of the $61,600 sweep idea.
The latest post is a duplicate seen in history and about two days old; current price action near $64,107 may have moved beyond the original timing window.
Low ADX at 12.58 and depressed volume trend at -38.58% support chop risk rather than a clean directional follow-through.
Elevated retail longs at 60.2% and negative 24h CVD can still amplify a downside stop run if $64,000/$63,700 breaks.
Market noteSignal age 1 daySignal date 2026-08-16T17:25:48ZBias MODERATE
Levels
$54K-$64K buy region; $61.5K spot bids; $65.4K reaction/resistance; BTC now near $64.1K
Summary
DrProfit frames BTC's $54K-$64K area as a buy region, with $61.5K spot bids and a recent $65.4K reaction keeping his read early-bottom/bullish. Current BTC near $64.1K sits just…
Action
Hold and use his levels as context only; consider bids only on pullbacks toward $61.5K or stronger confirmation above $65.4K.
Risk
His macro-cycle calls can be early by weeks and current low-volume, weak-trend conditions can turn the bounce into a…
See moreSee less
DrProfit frames BTC's $54K-$64K area as a buy region, with $61.5K spot bids and a recent $65.4K reaction keeping his read early-bottom/bullish. Current BTC near $64.1K sits just below the 50-day EMA and 200-week MA, so this is context for accumulation zones rather than a direct trade trigger.
Social memory
Social history
postgres · 36 matching · page 1/3
Used this run3Joined by selected run
Useful36Crypto-market relevant
Last crawledAug 19, 2:31 PM GMT+8Most recent source fetch
Old / stale28 / 2Aging source context
@DrProfitCryptoAug 12, 7:34 AM GMT+8 · 7 days old · Last crawled Aug 19, 2:31 PM GMT+8
$BTC
: Historic Indicator flashing bottom was in or is very close
Realized Price by Age shows the average price at which different groups of Bitcoin last moved on-chain, giving us an estimate of their cost basis. The…
Full social evidence
$BTC
: Historic Indicator flashing bottom was in or is very close
Realized Price by Age shows the average price at which different groups of Bitcoin last moved on-chain, giving us an estimate of their cost basis. The pink line represents Bitcoin held for 3–6 months, while the
No fresh finite sweep/reclaim or rejection confirmation is present, so entering now would be a midpoint trade rather than a liquidity-sweep setup.
Negative 24h/4d CVD and elevated retail/whale long positioning can accelerate a downside acceptance move through $63,700-$64,000 toward $63,000-$63,200.
Acceptance above $65,150 would invalidate a short-fade thesis and open $65,500-$66,050 or higher structural liquidity.
Deribit options fetch failed, so options-positioning confirmation is unavailable for this read.
Aug 17, 1:25 AM GMT+8 · 2 days old · Last crawled Aug 19, 2:31 PM GMT+8
$BTC
:
No change from last Weeks Sunday Report
The Old Man Punched perfectly at $65,400
I have placed spot buy orders at $61,500 area
Everything between 54-64k is my buy region!
@DrProfitCryptoAug 10, 6:55 AM GMT+8 · 9 days old · Last crawled Aug 16, 8:30 PM GMT+8
For the past 3 years, I’ve been sharing my Sunday Reports non-stop. The quality of my work is for you to judge, but I believe these reports offer something outstanding and unique that you won’t find anywhere else.
For 3…
Full social evidence
For the past 3 years, I’ve been sharing my Sunday Reports non-stop. The quality of my work is for you to judge, but I believe these reports offer something outstanding and unique that you won’t find anywhere else.
For 3 years, Sunday Reports have averaged around 2,000 likes. If
@DrProfitCryptoJan 1, 8:00 AM GMT+8 · 2422 days old · Last crawled Aug 13, 5:38 AM GMT+8
$BTC ancient DrProfit data
used beforestale87 lifetime uses
@DrProfitCryptoAug 10, 4:21 AM GMT+8 · 9 days old · Last crawled Aug 11, 8:36 PM GMT+8
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
The Old Man's Punch: This week is very important so we can finally understand if the old man's punch will hit or…
Full social evidence
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
The Old Man's Punch: This week is very important so we can finally understand if the old man's punch will hit or fail, and each result leads to two great results, and let
@DrProfitCryptoAug 5, 10:39 AM GMT+8 · 14 days old · Last crawled Aug 10, 5:31 AM GMT+8
$BTC
:
I never shorted the exact $125k top. I shorted throughout the $115k–$125k range, sold all my Bitcoin and went into a big short position by calling it the end of the bull market. Don’t say that my 115-125k short…
Full social evidence
$BTC
:
I never shorted the exact $125k top. I shorted throughout the $115k–$125k range, sold all my Bitcoin and went into a big short position by calling it the end of the bull market. Don’t say that my 115-125k short was perfectly entered at 125k when it’s simply not true. My
@DrProfitCryptoAug 5, 3:59 AM GMT+8 · 14 days old · Last crawled Aug 10, 2:30 AM GMT+8
$BTC
: I dont like repeating words
So this old man will give all the answers
If the Old man's punch fails, Bulls are Back!
If he hits, 64-54k remains my buy zone!
@DrProfitCryptoAug 4, 7:28 PM GMT+8 · 14 days old · Last crawled Aug 5, 5:31 PM GMT+8
Next to the Clarity act, there is nothing more important than the alliance of BlackRock, CoinBase, Circle and ETH. My biggest bets of this cycle are on
$ETH
, $CIRCLE and
$COIN
. The reasons are in the ‘Galactic Three’…
Full social evidence
Next to the Clarity act, there is nothing more important than the alliance of BlackRock, CoinBase, Circle and ETH. My biggest bets of this cycle are on
$ETH
, $CIRCLE and
$COIN
. The reasons are in the ‘Galactic Three’ report I have shared few days ago. It’s coming!
@DrProfitCryptoAug 3, 5:44 AM GMT+8 · 16 days old · Last crawled Aug 5, 8:31 AM GMT+8
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Let's have a look at the chart together and see where the market stands, what the market expects, and what might…
Full social evidence
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Let's have a look at the chart together and see where the market stands, what the market expects, and what might happen next. And as always, the golden rule applies: the
@DrProfitCryptoAug 2, 3:57 AM GMT+8 · 17 days old · Last crawled Aug 5, 2:31 AM GMT+8
$BTC
: I’m sticking to the plan: buying step by step, 5% allocations between 64k–54k. So far, 35% of my Bitcoin cash is deployed. Every single entry is shared in real time in Premium only! I keep accumulating at extreme…
Full social evidence
$BTC
: I’m sticking to the plan: buying step by step, 5% allocations between 64k–54k. So far, 35% of my Bitcoin cash is deployed. Every single entry is shared in real time in Premium only! I keep accumulating at extreme fear, patience!